POINT 8: You used the wrong Party. Trump screwed the pooch on this one and I suspect it will be years before the economy recovers - pent up demand or not. Brad, I thought you would no that the FAA was doing the job it was supposed to do. For example, take the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Next. Why do you think Iran wants desparately to possess nuclear weapons? Trump's trade policies WILL Cost Jobs and make most Everything more Expensive. Auto sales are Yellow because they are a little worse than what Obama gave him. He kept the economy in first gear for the next 7 years until Trump. Over the history of the planet, the climate has changed many times. The other major contributor associated with the government were Fannie and Freddie for allowing these ridiculous loans. This is the most press secretaries to ever fill the role in one US presidential term since the job was. No, I think Putin is doing just fine under Trump. For Trump to have been "stronger", it seems to me he would have had to gone to war with Russia, or at least sent American (Europe wouldn't go) troops into the Crimea. People are not uniform, and the type of questions can be changed and the results changed, Meaning that you can lead to whatever results you want by asking people questions and having them not be people representing the total. In the final hours of his presidency, Donald Trump is expected to grant close to 100 pardons. It says that if something doesn't change regarding population growth then the future for sustained economic growth is bleak. FiveThirtyEight is tracking Donald Trump’s approval ratings throughout his presidency. 2/9/2019 - After two years into the Trump administration, as with the other metrics, things kept improving and continuing the trend set under President Obama. In fact, ACA is good and the Ds and a few Rs helped preserve it. The GOP? Trump's trade deals will devastate America. A move that may not promote peace and stability in the region. And the 911 scenario was known as a possible way for terrorists to attack. Other factors led to the 2008 crash, mainly conservative economic theory maintained by the Fed and Congress. What has he stopped Putin from doing? Obama's 1,715 commuted prison sentences in his two terms were the most of any president in history — and he specifically explained his motivations to highlight systemic bias in the criminal justice system. Trump has had four chiefs of staff, tying with Obama for the most chiefs of staff during a first term. The presidency of Donald Trump began at noon EST (17:00 UTC) on January 20, 2017, when Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States, and ended on January 20, 2021. Here is President Obama in his own words... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4yXNiYJApAk. It had an American embassy there, not just THE American embassy. The bottom line is that the democrats put their vendetta against president Trump above their duty to the country and the people. The number of books Trump wrote at least 50 books. If I showed you a graph of corporate cash reserves, which were and still are huge, you would see the explanation of why business took so long to get back on track. Most or all of the Red states who voted for Trump will probably do so again. Finally, real per-capita disposable personal income is found by adjusting per-capita disposable personal income for inflation. Now it is time for Scott to have some good points against yours and mine. If fact, as you will see graphically, net trade plays almost no role in determining GDP because it accounts for roughly -3% of total GDP. This is backed up by the data behind Chart EMP - 4, but you can't see it yet. As to the electoral college, if Comey and the Russians [b]had stayed out of our elections[/b], Clinton would have, I am convinced, won. you have mentioned favorability and direction of country. They projected 2 million death if we didn't shut the country down. It is just a number such as the Right throwing around 20 Trillion Dollars as if that was a terrible thing. Anyone who is living in America for the last 10 years would agree with me. What happened to Trump's astounding growth numbers??? B: We still can't predict nature and weather accurately. Don't just shake your head and try to wisp it away. Brad, excellent points. They made a mockery out of the Judge Kavanaugh SC justice hearings. Any honest man with humility would have declined to acknowledge that award since he had done NOTHING to deserve it. BTW, the rate of growth in death has now Increased in 5 of the last 9 days. While one year doesn't make a trend, it is in agreement with a metric we will consider next. This new chart shows a history of job openings, hires, and separations since the last few years of the Bush 43 administration to now. What are they projecting? The connection is illegal aliens! 20,000-plus The dismantling of the Obama regulations and some ACA mandates along with the tax reform is what started the new boom. Are you saying that black unemployment increasing instead of decreasing is great news? It makes since that as unemployment grows, food stamp use will sooner or later also increase. Data collected by Brookings looking into turnover among those same "senior-ranking adviser" roles in past administrations found that among US presidents going back to Ronald Reagan, none had a turnover rate higher than 80% in his first term in office. Further, the only meaningful statement in your reference is, "Federal law does prevent illegal aliens from receiving benefits meant for American citizens. A year from now, they will be gone and in the noise. No, and he said as much. His so-called "Art of the Deal" simply means bully your opponent into submission. One, it wasn't Obama, it was the Fed, which Obama does not control. According to BLS now, they "misclassified" people "employed not at work" rather than the correct classification of "unemployed on temporary layoff. Should Trump get a Nobel? Shame. Many modern presidents have waited until the waning days of their presidencies to issue acts of clemency. BUT, the REAL question is why is your hero Trump doing everything in his power to INCREASE the carbon footprint? It's a basic disaster. In this, and the charts that follow showing finer and finer detail of GDP, I suspect most of you are in for a shock. It was that close. The FACT is not a single government agency did anything to protect the country. But after that time the die will be cast and economic disaster will be unavoidable. I find it interesting that when Trump actually tried to manage his business ventures, rather than receive royalties from his name, they largely failed, and probably for the same reason. Without getting into the nitty-gritty of why, what must happen to keep the population stable, not increasing or decreasing (like Russia is) is that, on average, each female must produce two offspring during her lifetime in order to replace her and the father. Obama fixed that over time which resulted in great working relationships with our allies. You can find the rest at https://discover.hubpages.com/politics/An-Analysis... (and even take the test to see how you score. Brad - why do most Americans love ACA. Also notice that growth was somewhat better during Democratic administrations - until you get to President Obama's presidency. In addition, there have been 13 Cabinet departures since Trump took office, the most recent to exit being Attorney General William Barr. Scott, you have failed to convince half the country about the evil Trump. The data is the data. Dogmatic - What you believe to be true is set in stone and no amount of fact will change your mind, as in Obama is a socialist. Did you look at the chart?? How do I know it isn't a hoax. This includes the decrease in Part-Time Employment growth which reflects the switch from part-time to full-time. Do you honestly think they are going to re-employ the 40+ million workers let go so far in a couple months time? You see, included on each chart are the major recessions, depressions, and panics that have marred our growth and caused unimaginable suffering and hardship on all but the wealthiest Americans. Did you see the job report this morning. Market comparison of the real estate was none existent, and like the dot com when the worthless stock started to rise, and continue to rise that let in the dummies trying to get a piece. They put Illegal Aliens, and even Convicted Illegal Alien Felons above their duty to America, Americans and Legal Immigrants. B: That is technically true, but the FRB was one of the major contributors to the real estate bubble and its collapse. Take your statement about a "false" economy - it is clear you have no clue what you are talking about. The first set of charts provide a look at Public Debt as well as the more meaningful Public Debt to GDP Ratio. The colored circles represent the "goodness" of that measure. If separations exceed hires, even in one month, that is a major red flag. 2/9/2019 - Note that the growth in manufacturing jobs slowed from 1.8% through last month down to 1.6% this month. And that doesn't take into account the expected resurgence this Fall. "Potential enemies know that they would suffer disastrous consequences at once if they should be so foolish as to launch an attack against the United States or Canada. 9. Scott Belford (author) from Keystone Heights, FL on April 20, 2018: Khalil - Thanks for taking the time to review and think about this hub. Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on January 17, 2020: Scott, you did not answer my question. But since he lies or makes false statements all of the time, I don't believe a word he says. NORAD's motto is "Deter, Detect, Defend." At this point in time, these indicators aren't indicating much. But apparently you don't, hence your criticism of it. It is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and should not be substituted for impartial fact or advice in legal, political, or personal matters. It will ultimately and necessarily lead to lower employment and higher prices in the United States as well as in many parts of the world. And so compassionate? The remainder comes from the Obama stimulus program that replaced depressed consumer spending with more government spending; it worked. The fact you are in the vast minority in thinking ACA is bad is beside the point. So, Trump has put wheels on the congressional seesaw to get it to move. So far, with the candidates, over 20 on the Democrat side, none of them can beat Trump. That is hardly a ban on Muslims. Intelligence briefers reportedly repeated the President's name and title in order to keep his attention. ---------------------------------------------------------------, FDA? At the current rate of death, by the Aug 4 date many modelers are using, over 200,000 will be dead. It should be a surprise to no one that Consumer Spending accounts for the lion's share of GDP, about 69%. He has made many promises regarding how well various sectors of the economy will do, e.g., huge increases in coal jobs. It is not a simple either or scenerio. Now that people see what he is really like, he has only LOST votes among Ds, who won't make the same mistake twice, and Independents, who have left Trump in droves, and probably some Republicans. These FDA approved drugs have been the bread and butter of legal firms because they caused death, and serious side effects. That is something to keep an eye on to see if the official UE rates grows as well. The potential removal of President Donald Trump from office starts out more popular than any other removal process of a president in recent American history. Add to the fact that they have now brought charges against four of Trump's cronies tells me they have found something. Had they had proper communications between agencies, there was a tiny chance they would have put the pieces together in time. Name some serious diseases like cancer, and heart disease where there has been a cure? In the mean time, there has been a 24% increase in farm bankruptcies caused by Trump as well as most of the remaining farmers being put on the hated welfare system. And yes, their job is not finding cures, but they don't really accomplish their primary task either. They just don't want to be blamed for them, even though they are to blame. What does sampling in political polls do? To make up the difference, the government borrows money which is called the National Debt; which today exceeds $20 trillion, a historically high number. Because President Trump and his supporters have made it very clear in words and deeds that they are measuring themselves to Obama's legacy. -------------------------------------------------. Here lies the problem. The Iran deal was the worst deal we can have. Look at the note in the middle of the chart pointing to the line at about the 2009 point. As it turned out, they were wrong. But Mueller's team knows so much more than any of them do - and his team is not leaking. Beginning in 2016, coinciding with the very volatile 2016 presidential election, the growth in job openings slowed down to a crawl. So far, the number of people who have been pardoned or granted commutations by Trump is much smaller than acts of clemency by past US presidents going back to Nixon. Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on February 27, 2019: Here is Thomas Sowell explaining why Obama’s policies failed -, https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Xi8eLSyb7RM, https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv8T1QFHwGs. Why? I am not surprised since you are a conservative. CNN's Betsy Klein and Christina Carrega contributed to this report. It has been going on for thousands of years. Medical patents should be extremely limited in score, as other people could build on any useful patents to find a cure. We also see that as President Obama left office, the UE rate fell to lows seen in both the Clinton and Bush administrations. In my mind, Donald Trump is one of the biggest con men in world history. If you are interested try this one from Motley Fool. "Conservatives and President Trump think global warming is a hoax, especially that it is man-made. Let's look at Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it is explained a little later. The U-6 adds to the official unemployment definition all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons. did Jong Un feared that he may face the fate of Sadam Housain after the last military strike on Syria ? Unless you don't think penicillin is a cure to a major disease, then I would say you are wrong. Scott Belford (author) from Keystone Heights, FL on April 27, 2018: Even Trump's golf courses are having problems. I lived through a similar draw down beginning with the Bush I administration after we won the Cold War. Even here, you still don't know if this is situation is "normal" or not until you see what it was in previous years. "HOW does not paying for insurance and foisting your medical expenses off on to taxpayers helping the economy - these well-off freeloaders are dragging down the economy. You don't even acknowledge much of what we write, and when you do this is your comments. The FRB has been working against the US this century. You can be against a bad deal and not for war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFu2oze_uZA. Since Obama saved the day, just nice steady growth. Also, did China cheated us in those past years? So GDP growth should be around 3.4%. Notice how many recessions happened after periods of high growth (more than 3.5%) between 1930 and 1983. CHART EMP - 4: Mean and Median Weeks Out of Work. Scott Belford (author) from Keystone Heights, FL on February 28, 2019: When, Jack, did I ever say "how bad things (I presume you are talking about the economy" are under Trump" - WHY do you make such stuff up?? Just because you say it is false in its entirety doesn't mean squat. Certainly not the gov't data I use. Only time will tell. In case you don't know, the answer is Backwards. How do we know that humans are causing it, if we don't know what is changing the climate, man or nature? Notice that in Chart EMP - 4, the February numbers for less than 5 weeks and between 15 and 27 weeks out of work have flattened out or have a slight up-tick. More and more states are seeing increased cases - and it isn't even Fall yet when the experts expect a major resurgence of cases and deaths. This is what the charts tell me about the state of America at that point in time. POINT 3: Who is "THEY you are talking about? More often, spending exceeds income then it really is a deficit. Both measure whether he is doing better or worse than President Obama for each metric. Free money does not exist in real life. Now ME is acting as you would think it would, after the initial plunge into a deep recession, those figures are decreasing as the economy recovers. Wikileaks NEVER published even one of Hillary Clinton's emails. I am already seeing signs that the US Case and Death curves are bottoming out. Therefore, employment and unemployment statistics come to front of the class. If things were just humming along like you claim, why did the American voter rejected the Democrats in 2016? First, consider all of the yellow triangles, they mark the various recessions that have occurred since WW II.1 You should notice that the PR either flattens out or declines during most, but not all, recessions. Changes in real per-capita disposable personal income over time indicates trend in a country's material standard of living. Two, there is nothing "false" about a zero interest economy that saved the world. if not, what would you have done? Let me offer a definition I found on-line that is much more understandable than any I could come up with. Why can't you be happy for the America farmer who is now able to sell $40 Billion to China? Sotu • What number is President Trump?-----Our mission is informing people properly. Vietnam 50 years later is a walking bomb field, thanks to LBJ. -In general, how do you think Trump is doing on the domestic ground ? The GW Bush stock market was built on the real estate bubble, that also crashed. For example, the top line traces changes in the Civilian non-Institutional Population (CniP), i.e. Having said all of that, do I wish Obama had done more to arm the Ukranians, the Kurds, and, if they could figure out who the good guys really were, some of the Syrian rebels. The ultimate prove is with the American voter. Afte a year of investigation by the Mueller team, nothing was found relating to Trump and Russian collusion... https://thelawdictionary.org/article/why-is-it-tha... https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/business/stoc... https://discover.hubpages.com/politics/Here-is-Wha... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan... https://www.factcheck.org/2017/09/world-opinion-tr... https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/donald-... https://discover.hubpages.com/politics/An-Analysis... Food Stamp Use is Yellow (poor). Those light tiny lines about the high point is a technical indicator. And how would it effect U.S. position as a world power? But Libya left such a bad taste in his mouth, he wasn't about to do it again. He can't even get along with the Democrats, and he goes around signing all these executive orders. It was the fault of both parties allowing Fannie and Freddie to take these kind of loans. He has tweeted more than 25,000 times — an average of 18 times per day — since taking office in January 2017, including retweets. If they do, such as the last data point in the chart below, then one needs to start paying closer attention to what's happening in the overall economy. -- As President Donald Trump prepares to leave the White House, 34% of Americans approve of the job he is doing as president, the worst evaluation of his presidency. Because food stamps is a "lagging" indicator then the forces driving the observed changes are more than likely not going to change in the near future. That is something to watch as, in isolation, it is not a good sign for future economic growth. Polymath - Brad, you should look it up. In spite of that president Trump accomplished a lot in those two years. Trump as the master deal maker knows this. POINT 9: False in its entirety. This is in line with Donald Trump's IQ 156. - like Brad, you need to get your facts straight. While we are on this topic, what do you think of the North/South Korean development of recent days? I am guessing, from your comment, that you don't know what the FDA's mission is either. It is very clear from your comments that money means more to you than human life does. The only Party that I know of who did Mitch McConnell against Obama. The first chart looks at the whole history of GDP, from 1794 to 2017. Scott Belford (author) from Keystone Heights, FL on February 26, 2019: POINT 1: What exactly did the Ds block? This final metric is the carbon footprint in America which means how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases enter the atmosphere. what do you mean by them ? Vaccine or no vaccine. President Trump, however, has ordered the EPA to roll back all of Obama's efforts to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide being released.". what do you think of these accomplishments? Since the January 2018 update, things have changed a little bit. You do know we are going into a recession come July when they report the 2nd Qtr numbers don't you? What Boom? collected from a source. Since Central Americans formal education ends at grade 6 with no English language skills and the USA K-12 and post secondary education fails to educate these immigrants well, won't these immigrants be on government support for most of their lives paying little federal and state income taxes, which will reduce our USA productivity? We see that once President Obama stopped the downward spiral, by late 2009 job openings began to grow. I would much rather have an economy chug along at 2 - 2.5% for years and years rather than 3.5% + for a few years before the next recession as history says it will. Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on February 04, 2018: My esoteric, it is very simple. BTW, do you know the what the definition of #FakeNews is? The next chart, GDP - 3, is related to the previous GDP charts in that the outcome of a growing GDP is a growing stock Market as well as the reverse. He found zero evidence in the politically motivate investigations, while controlling the republicans from investigating them. This is confirmed with the next Chart, EMP - 5 where the difference (dashed line) has also flattened out a bit. It does put Israel on our side as it should. Well, you can see from Chart PD-3, that is not really the case because after you get past the terrible effects of the Great 2008 Recession (Obama took office in 2009 and was able to have direct influence on the 2010 budgets and beyond), you see that Obama, at 2.7%, has the second lowest rate of debt growth of the four presidents before him. JAMES K. POLK. And public behavior that otherwise was largely beneath the office before his tenure is often on full display online, with Trump often resorting to name-calling and tweeting overtly racist messages and media. You should read my bio again, Jack regarding understanding economics. * The military budget is a little over half of the $1.3 trillion. What has Agriculture done? MY ESOTERIC likes to think of himself as a bit of a polymath with degrees in Statistics, Accounting, Computer Science, & Operations Research. China again promised to do better on not stealing our intellectual property. On the other hand, other observers say that Trump is right when he urged the NATO to pay their fair share and that they owe the U.S. Doesn’t that seem logical? When one fails, it means that the process has failed. let's consider what is thought of as an "alternative measure". All but five individuals who received clemency from Trump have connections to the White House or currency with his political base or, in the case of a posthumous pardon of Susan B. Anthony, serve as a political symbol (even though she wore the conviction proudly and, Throughout his presidency, Trump has spotlighted his. The number of votes Hillary Clinton received more than Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. He gave away billions of dollars and got nothing in return. Yet that is exactly what President Trump and many other conservatives are trying to stop from happening. Donald Trump became the 45th president of the United States in January 2017. Beside each measure, e.g. In many ways, the creation of NORAD was an act of Cold War propaganda. Let me help -. If it is decreasing, then the economy is almost certainly recovering. He is a strong supporter of Israel and recognized Jerusalem as Capitol. Maybe it should have been 18%. The president repeatedly downplayed the risk of COVID-19 and has touted unproven medications and cures — such as pondering the injection of disinfectant as a treatment. If you look at 2007 you should noticed that Consumer Spending and Business started declining while Government Spending and Net Exports improved. If it were, an earthquake, tornado, or hurricane would be the best leader in the world. And now I am not so sure of that anymore either. Because this is a monthly chart (although I make changes throughout the month) we won't know until March whether this is the beginning of a trend or just a blip (a very big blip indeed). It is no more complicated than that. They have destroyed your party without any help from the Russians or the GOP. The they I am referring to is the Obama administration. How often has Trump played golf since his inauguration and how much has it cost taxpayers? Any rise in the interest rate would have had many buyers defaulting or not keeping up with their loan payments. I'll have to listen to Thomas Sowell before commenting. The only benefit that illegal aliens are allowed is emergency medical care.". It should be easy to tell from Chart GDP-2 below why President Obama's stimulus was needed. But these numbers illustrate some of the many ways Trump and his administration defied the status quo of the executive branch. Notice it is still well below that during the last years of Clinton. More than likely, farmers will never be able to get back all of the customers they lost due to Trump. Hillary Clintoon should have never been on the ballot. Jack Lee from Yorktown NY on February 03, 2018: The dossier is a fake created by Steele. In four years, President Trump made 30,573 false or misleading claims The Fact Checker’s database of the false or misleading claims made by President Trump while in office. B: How do you know it isn't? The charts and graphs will be organized in what I hope are logical groups, starting with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a general measure of the health of the economy, Included with the GDP are other related measures that provide more insight. If we can't do that then how can we fix the weather. UPDATED Jan. 20, … I am not sure, the Democrats didn't control any part of gov't did they. That was how they dealt with it and in two years, the flu went away on its own. Given the disastrous sequester brought on by the conservative elements in American society, the military lost a lot of its preparedness. Several of the stoplights which now show Red-Red, use to be Red-Yellow or even Red-Green for a bit. When it comes to economics, it was night and day between the Obama years and now. Many companies closed their doors to protect people - to the tune of 40 million laid off. No sane person would. They are saying this weird outcome may be a timing issue coupled with state unemployment offices being overwhelmed and slow in processing. Why this ambiguity? The pattern that has been established (head and shoulders) is almost the same pattern we say before the 2008 stock market crash. We see that CnIP growth is slowly decreasing over time from 1.16%/yr during the Bush administration to 0.4%/yr in Trump's first year (that will probably grow some over the next three years). This next series of charts provide a look at Public Debt, Debt to GDP ratio, GDP and Per Capita GDP over various periods of time starting with a look at the entire history of the United States. Immigrants, illegal or not, are generally more productive and less inclined to break the law while, at the same time, not being eligible for most social support benefits than or that citizens do. So you think that they have done a good job protecting the people from bad agricultural food. That may or may not be there the next time I renew this chart, but at the moment it represents the largest sell off in the market (numerically) in its history; 1175 points on Feb 5, 2018 and over 7% in the five days preceding that. But just to disprove your hypothesis, the FDA was started in 1906 (Pure Food and Drugs Act) and penicillin use began in 1942. Trump won the electoral college by 304 votes to Clinton’s 227. It is intended depict in one place an easy to read picture of the status of a complex set of data; in this case Trump's America. The Israel Palestinian issue is never going to be solved. And you won't know until you measure it against some other related metric(s); in this case GDP and Time. You might have an audience. That low interest variable loan coupled with no or really low down payment and with many buyers maxed out to buy the house.
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